AG Report 8.10.2023
The Trump 2024 Saga
I hadn’t read the latest criminal Trump indictment when I wrote last week’s newsletter, but here is where I’ve landed overall:
Criminal Cases:
The Bragg Indictment was purely political. It would never have been brought without the politics.
The documents case in Florida is very strong. The facts support conviction barring any exculpatory evidence that comes out.
The Georgia case remains an open question. An indictment is rumored to be coming next week.
On the latest D.C. indictment, 3 of the 4 counts are a reach. That doesn’t mean a D.C. jury can’t get there, but I think Trump can put up a capable defense. The count related to conspiracy to defraud seems very viable considering the fake elector schemes.
There’s an argument about the specific elements of this charge, but the scheme itself was insane and clearly illegal. You can read the specific plan to essentially steal the election in the Eastman memo. Based on their Plan A theory, all Democrats would need to do if Biden loses in 2024 is find random people in a few close states to declare themselves alternate electors that certify Biden won, and then Kamala Harris would be unilaterally able to discount the real electors and declare Biden the winner.
Plan B would again ignore the real certified electors and allow the state delegations to pick the winner. And the entire scheme would then rest on arguing that the courts can’t stop the clearly illegal attempt to steal the election because it’s a political question, so the courts don’t have jurisdiction.
Regardless of the criminal element, anyone who backs such a scheme clearly doesn’t belong anywhere near a position of power or take their oath to the Constitution seriously.
It is also important to note that the elderly Trump supporters who took on the role of fake electors did so because the Trump camp assured them they would only be utilized if he won in court. In reality, they put these folks in legal jeopardy for a scheme that had almost no chance of succeeding by lying to them, as a court victory was never part of the plan. In 2 of the 7 states, the fake electors were at least wise enough to include language insisting that their certification would only be considered if Trump won in court.
On the political question: Very few people on the right are being honest about what a general election between Trump and Biden would look like at this point. Trump will be facing 2 or 3 trials, meaning almost every news cycle will relate to his criminal cases. There will be constant negative revelations and additional news cycles centering around the reactions of Republican candidates to those revelations. Various aspects of Biden’s record will barely be touched during the campaign.
Democrats will then drop $100 million+ in ads targeting independent voters in key states reminding them why they hated Trump. Unlike in a primary, the spin from right-wing media and influencers won’t make a dent with that crowd. In addition, Democrats will spend a ton of money on an extensive voter turnout operation that targets their base. That alone would make it very tough for someone with Trump’s low favorability to win the election.
And then there’s the Trump fundraising issue. As I shared last week, Trump will be spending almost everything he raises on legal bills. That means there will be very little money leftover for ads, a turnout operation, or any of the things that make a national general campaign successful. Trump will be completely reliant on earned media and likely discourage early and mail voting given his history. This will also mean that other Republican candidates down ballot will not have any support to get their voters to the polls. All of that adds up to a historic and predictable disaster for Republicans that simply isn’t being reflected in today’s polls.
The Real Debate: We learned last week that there will be at least one debate focused on actual substance, as Florida Gov. Ro DeSantis accepted a debate challenge from California Gov. Gavin Newsom. The logistics are still being worked out, but the debate is supposedly going to happen sometime in early November. This will give voters a chance to determine which governing philosophy they should pursue, not just which corrupt geriatric politician they should prop up.
NYT Investigation Finds CCP Buying Influence on the American Left
The New York Times has revealed an extensive financial network supporting efforts to promote Chinese Communist Party propaganda and defend CCP actions among groups on the American left. The Times identified New York socialist millionaire Neville Roy Singham, who is married to Code Pink co-founder Jodie Evans, as being at the center of this influence campaign to link progressive causes with pro-CCP talking points.
Code Pink has provided a key example of the results. The group, which has received a quarter of its funding since 2017 from two nonprofits tied to Singham, went from criticizing China’s human rights record to actively defending the CCP’s horrendous treatment of Uyghur Muslims and attacking anyone on the left who criticized China.
Washington Post Only Identifies One Extreme