AG Report 11.29.2024
The US Election is Helping Stabilize the Conflict Around Israel
You don’t have to like Trump or have voted for him to recognize that his election has had a significant and positive impact on events in the Middle East. Hezbollah and Israel have finally agreed to a ceasefire in Lebanon that would finally see the implementation of Resolution 1701. That agreement was not possible until last week because Hezbollah had remained insistent on not stopping the fight while Israel was still in Gaza. Similarly, The New York Times is reporting that the Islamic Republic has decided to call off their latest promised direct retaliation against Israel because of Trump’s election.
Some people will chalk the timing up to coincidence, but that requires ignoring what is actually driving the shift. It has less to do with anything Trump has done or said, and more to do with the completely incompetent and ineffective strategies of the Biden administration. Many of us have argued for the whole year that the Biden administration was inadvertently perpetuating the conflict, making any possibility of a deal less likely with their approach of publicly reprimanding Israel while applying little pressure on those attacking it.
The waffling of the Biden administration gave groups like Hamas and Hezbollah hope that if they just waited long enough and applied sufficient pressure via a propaganda campaign, the United States would abandon Israel. That made a deal significantly less likely on both fronts. Furthermore, the leadership in Tehran felt emboldened to engage in direct strikes against Israel because the Biden administration actively signaled they would do everything they could to constrain an Israeli response. The election of Trump, who has stated he will stop all pauses on military aid and support Israel in doing what they must do to respond to Tehran, took away the entire playbook that the Islamic Republic and its terror proxies were relying on. They can no longer hope to wait it out for a Harris administration to cut off weapons, and Iran must fear a significant response if they attack Israel directly yet again. That has restored deterrence with Iran and forced Hezbollah to face the reality of an unwinnable situation. I strongly suspect it will also make a potential hostage deal in Gaza far more likely in the near future.
Peace through strength is a real thing, especially in the Middle East. The Biden team never understood that, and a lot of people have paid a heavy price as a result. You don’t have to like Trump or agree with his policies to recognize that it’s good the failed foreign policy strategies of the previous administration are no longer driving decisions in the Middle East.
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